Canada’s Express Entry system, once considered a predictable and accessible route for skilled immigrants, is now entering a period of marked uncertainty in 2025. A series of policy shifts, delayed draws, and smaller invitation rounds have left candidates reevaluating their strategies—and the upcoming Express Entry draw could be a defining moment for those hoping to secure permanent residency (PR) this year.
Since March 21, the Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has conducted only six draws, a sharp decline linked to reduced immigration targets under the 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan. Notably, the IRCC has missed the anticipated biweekly draw window of May 27–30, heightening speculation around when—and how—the next round of invitations will unfold.
Draw Suspension and Smaller Rounds Fuel CRS Score Hike
After a temporary suspension in late March, draws resumed on April 14 but with reduced invitation numbers. This has resulted in unexpectedly high Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) cutoffs. A Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draw on May 13 invited only 500 candidates, with a record-high CRS cutoff of 547—defying predictions that the recent removal of arranged job offer points would drive cutoffs downward.
The March 25 policy change eliminating up to 200 CRS points for job offers was expected to significantly benefit candidates without Canadian employment offers. Instead, smaller draw sizes have preserved a competitive pool, pushing CRS thresholds higher.
Inventory Backlog Looms Over PR Pathways
As of April 30, 2025, the IRCC’s processing inventory included 880,800 PR applications—enough to meet the country’s PR targets through April 2027. With an approval rate hovering around 88%, the existing application volume alone could satisfy annual intake goals, prompting concerns that future draws may remain limited in size and frequency.
2025 Draw Trends: A Shift Toward Targeted Selections
This year has also seen a strategic pivot toward category-based draws. Nearly 54% of ITAs so far in 2025 have gone to candidates with French language proficiency. Meanwhile, CEC draws have accounted for just under 30% of all invitations, while occupational categories such as healthcare and education remain underutilized.
Canada’s PNP quotas have been slashed by 50%, and the country’s Express Entry model now favors select candidates who meet labor market demands or possess French-language skills. This policy direction supports the government’s aim to stabilize PR intake at 1% of Canada’s population by 2027 to reduce pressure on housing and public services.
What to Expect from the Next Express Entry Draw
Whether the next Express Entry draw occurs this week or next, its format and outcome will send critical signals. Will IRCC return to a broader, higher-volume draw to accommodate the large pool of in-Canada temporary residents awaiting PR? Or will it stick to narrower, targeted invitations with high cutoffs?
A draw issuing more than 2,000 ITAs—particularly within the CEC class—would indicate a renewed focus on transitioning temporary residents. A CRS cutoff drop to the low 530s would provide a much-needed boost to candidates with scores in the 510–540 range. Conversely, another small draw or high cutoff will likely push many candidates to pursue alternative streams, including French-language or occupation-specific categories.
Candidates Advised to Refine Strategies
With the Express Entry process growing more competitive, experts advise candidates to bolster their CRS profiles wherever possible. Improving language proficiency, securing provincial nominations, and gaining additional Canadian work experience remain key strategies.
IRCC’s deviation from its historical biweekly draw schedule also suggests the emergence of a more irregular, possibly monthly pattern. Candidates are encouraged to monitor official updates closely and submit their profiles early to benefit from tie-breaking rules.
Conclusion: A Defining Moment Ahead
As we await the next Express Entry draw, thousands of skilled workers across Canada and abroad are watching closely. The outcome may not only shape their immediate chances for PR but also offer critical insight into IRCC’s evolving priorities.
Whether you’re a temporary resident in Canada, a bilingual professional, or a skilled worker abroad, the next draw could be your signal to act—or to recalibrate your strategy in light of Canada’s increasingly selective immigration landscape.
Stay tuned to Immigration News Canada for timely updates and expert analysis as this story continues to develop.
